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- Plan B compared the current bitcoin bull run to 2017 and 2013, and based on that, expects the price to rise to $300,000.
- Both analysts agree that Bitcoin is at most halfway in this bull run.
After hitting a new high of $49,700 and a sharp drop to $45,900, the Bitcoin price has once again proven to be very “resilient” and is trading at $48,000 at the time of publication. Based on Bitcoin’s recent price movements, two of the most renowned crypto experts shed light on the current dynamics and where the price is headed.
On The Investor’s Podcast Network with Preston Pysh, Plan B and Willy Woo shared data and analysis on what is currently driving Bitcoin’s price to new all-time highs. For Plan B, it’s all about the Halving. According to his Stock-to-Flow, Bitcoin is following a similar trajectory as in 2013 and 2017.
By comparing Bitcoin price charts to those years, Plan B expects BTC to sit at $100,000 or $300,000, once “an equilibrium” is reached and the price stabilizes. Woo agreed with the influence of halving, stating:
The supply shock push on the market, the sell pressure halves, because the new supply is at the rate it’s coming onto the market is halving each time. So yeah, you get the shove and then it sets up this resonance and Bitcoin cycles and actually all the crypto, the entire crypto space circulates around these four year cycles of Bitcoins halvening.
Plan B also remarked that Bitcoin is barely halfway through the 70,000 blocks that constitute one of the 3 segments used by the Stock-to-Flow model to separate BTC bull cycles. Therefore, Bitcoin is only halfway in this current bull market, still with plenty of room to keep rising according to historical data:
I wouldn’t surprise me at all if indeed the next old-time hive, if you will be at exactly or around the 70,000 blocks after the halving, which would put it somewhere end of this year December, probably. Yeah, that’s very obvious. And it’s also very interesting because you see the blocks online, but you can see much more in online chain analytics.
Bitcoin’s price is undervalued
Willy Woo noted that whales are currently accumulating BTC for twice as long as in the previous bull run in 2017. The analyst estimates that whales are hodling Bitcoin for at least 12 months in this bull cycle – a trend that coincides with the entry of MicroStrategy and other institutions into the crypto market.
As Woo also said, we are currently seeing small investors and small holders getting in. However, we also see weak hands being shaken out at every dip, while whales continue to buy. In addition, retail interest is still comparatively very low.
Woo attributes this to the fact that BHT funds on exchanges continue to decline. This is because retailers tend to keep their BTC on exchanges rather than on a cold wallet. So if the funds on the exchanges are rising again, we can assume that the market is in the last part of the bull market.
We’re still not seeing that yet (increase inflow in BTC on exchanges). So we’re still really early in this phase. It’s just mind-blowing how different it is and that the length of their accumulation off exchanges is so long and so deep. It’s an incredible bull market this one.
I’ve never seen a move like this in my career inside Bitcoin, where the price goes a sheer vertical wall yet the fundamentals of the buying is supporting that and there’s no real path right now for us to go down.
None of Woo’s indicators point to an early drop in price and Plan B added:
So I totally agree with Willy that we are in a bull market and in the early stage. So we have a long way to go. If you ask me, we’ve been in a bull market since November, December. So we have, well, at least half a year ahead of us and in terms of volatility, (…) Because it goes up and up and there’s less volatility, and then the big volatility comes when the bull market is over.
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