According to @RiggsBTC on X, Bitcoin (BTC) is poised for an “unprecedented” surge that could lift it to above $9 million in the next two years. Taking to X on December 6, @RiggsBTC asserted that the current Bitcoin bull run, which began in late 2022 when prices dumped to as low as $15,000, marks the start of a “supercycle,” a period where BTC will aggressively rally, extending gains.
Will Bitcoin Hit $9 Million In 2 Years?
The asset manager attributes this potential upsurge to multiple factors. Top of the list is the looming supply shock, considering the expected Bitcoin halving scheduled for early April 2021. @RiggsBTC noted that with less than 21 million BTC in circulation, reducing supply and sustained demand could support Bitcoin, feeding aggressive bulls.
To contextualize the potential magnitude of this expected growth, @RiggsBTC estimates that only if 5% of global wealth, conservatively estimated at over $1 quadrillion, translating to $50 trillion, get exposure to the limited BTC in circulation, there will be more upsides.
From the analyst’s view, there will only be around 5 million BTC, most of which are from “weak hands” selling to “nation-states and institutions.” This shift will be the basis for a leg up that will see Bitcoin reach $9 million “in 24 months.”
Pierre Rochard, the VP of Research at Riot Platforms, echoed @RiggsBTC’s sentiment, highlighting the favorable macroeconomic conditions likely to propel Bitcoin even higher. Rochard notes that the U.S. government spends $6 trillion, encompassing $4 trillion in taxes, $2 trillion in borrowing, and $1 trillion in interest payments on its $33 trillion debt.
While the government spends huge sums of money on interest payments alone, Bitcoin’s market capitalization remains under $1 trillion. According to CoinMarketCap, BTC had a market cap of $860 billion when writing on December 6.
Eyes On The SEC And Bitcoin ETFs
Beyond the Bitcoin halving event and supportive macroeconomic factors, the community is also looking at regulators. In early December 2023, the crypto community expects the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve the first batch of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
This product will provide institutional investors an avenue to get exposure to Bitcoin in a regulated environment, potentially unleashing a wave of capital. Since October, the expectations of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States have propped prices.
Even so, how the market will react once the SEC authorizes this derivative is yet to be seen. In the past, the approval of key crypto derivatives products, for instance, the first Bitcoin Futures product in the United States in December 2018, marked cyclic peaks. Afterward, prices tanked, dropping from $20,000.
Feature image from Canva, chart from TradingView
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