Bitcoin outperforms gold and US stocks amid US-Iran war

Bitcoin has outperformed gold, silver, and major US equity indexes since the US-Israeli attack on Iran began, recovering to over $72,000 even as oil surged above $100 a barrel and traders cut expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing.

According to CryptoSlate data, Bitcoin is up 7.3% since the conflict began and even rallied to a one-month high of over $73,000. The flagship digital asset has since retraced to around $72,200 as of press time.

Over the same stretch, gold fell to $5,091, about 4% below the level it stood before the first strikes hit Iran. Silver dropped more than 10%, falling from over $90 to $82 as of press time. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were down 1% to 2%.

The scorecard also places Bitcoin ahead of several traditional benchmarks during a period when the usual macro headwinds facing digital assets have otherwise strengthened.

Oil climbed about 20% and broke above $100 per barrel for the first time in nearly four years amid escalating tensions over Iran. The dollar also strengthened, and investors sharply reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts.

That backdrop usually weighs on crypto through tighter financial conditions and a more defensive tone across global markets.

However, Bitcoin has rebounded strongly, drawing attention because its rise came after an initial selloff, and because it held while other large assets struggled to regain ground.

From weekend selloff to rebound

Bitcoin’s first move after the strikes was consistent with its history during sudden geopolitical shocks.

At the time, CryptoSlate reported that BTC sold off over the weekend following the outbreak of war, with roughly $300 million in liquidations as traders cut risk.

Here, Bitcoin fell toward the mid-$63,000 range in the immediate aftermath, trading in line with broader expectations for a high-beta asset amid acute uncertainty.

However, the move that followed changed the shape of the story.

Instead of remaining pinned near those lows as oil moved higher and inflation concerns returned to the market, Bitcoin recovered into the second week of March and broke through the $70,000 mark.

That rebound left it ahead of gold, silver, and the major US stock indexes over the same period, even as crude remained elevated and traders reassessed the macro implications of a prolonged Middle East conflict.

Part of that rebound appears to have come from a market that had already cleared a sizable amount of leverage during the initial washout.

Data from CoinGlass showed Bitcoin price rising alongside open interest, with leverage rebuilding after the flush. Open interest returned to about 88,000 BTC, a level that points to renewed participation without yet reaching an extreme.

That setup leaves room for volatility in either direction. It also shows that traders returned to the market quickly after the first liquidation event, helping support the price recovery.

ETF flows add support

Another support layer came from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund demand.

Data from SoSoValue showed that spot Bitcoin ETF inflows totaled $586.99 million this week, marking the third-strongest inflow week this year.

Those flows do not on their own explain the full price move, though they do point to a steady source of demand entering the market during a period of geopolitical strain and tighter macro conditions.

That combination, liquidation reset followed by ETF inflows, helps explain why Bitcoin recovered faster than many expected after the first round of war-related selling.

The backdrop differs from earlier geopolitical episodes in crypto because Bitcoin now trades in a deeper, more institutionalized market.

Spot ETFs have expanded the buyer base, and that broader capital pool appears to have helped absorb volatility after the first de-risking wave.

Bitcoin’s trading pattern during the conflict has also reinforced its role as a liquid macro asset. The market has been processing both crypto-native signals and global cross-asset signals simultaneously.

Price action around oil, the dollar, and Fed expectations remained relevant throughout the rebound, yet Bitcoin still recovered more strongly than several traditional benchmarks.

At the same time, there is also evidence of stress-driven utility beneath the surface of the market.

Following the initial strikes, blockchain data showed a jump in outflows from Iranian crypto exchanges.

Those flows were too small to move the global Bitcoin market on their own, though they added another reminder of how digital assets can be used during periods of capital stress and financial disruption.

Bear market view still hangs over the rally

Even with the rebound, several analysts continue to describe the market as bearish.

CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno said the firm’s Bitcoin Bull Score Index hit 30, the highest reading since late October. He said the index had shifted from “extra bearish” to “bearish,” while describing the latest move as a relief rally within a broader bear market.

Additional data from CryptoQuant has also shown growing market disbelief even as Bitcoin held above $70,000.

According to that view, the macro backdrop remains difficult, especially with tensions around global oil trade still unresolved. In that setting, traders have continued to lean against the rally rather than chase it.

That skepticism is visible in the derivatives market. Funding rates on Binance have remained negative for about a week, showing that each rebound has been used by many traders as an opportunity to add short exposure.

On March 10 and 11, funding rates on Binance fell below minus 0.006, a level that signaled a heavily short-skewed market.

Those conditions can cut both ways. Persistent short positioning reflects caution, though it also creates the possibility of further upside if rising prices force bearish traders to cover.

Joao Wedson, founder of blockchain analysis platform Alphractal, added another warning sign. He said Whale vs Retail Delta showed that whales had been reducing their long positions relative to retail traders.

When that measure moves into the red zone, it indicates whales are becoming more inclined to take short positions while retail traders lean the other way.

In previous cases, Wedson said, those readings either preceded a price decline or coincided with local exhaustion near a bottom.

Liquidity zones define the next move

For now, Bitcoin’s short-term structure remains range-bound, with whale supply overhead and strong bid support below.

Analysts at Bitunix told CryptoSlate that derivatives liquidation heatmaps show the area around $71,300 as the first major short-liquidation and liquidity concentration zone above the current price, making it a near-term resistance level.

CoinGlass data adds to that picture, showing large sell walls stacked between $72,000 and $74,000, creating a notable band of overhead supply.

Meanwhile, the support structure is also becoming clearer below the market.

CoinGlass data show whales layering bids between $70,500 and $71,000, with a deeper cluster between $69,000 and $70,000. Bitunix analysts separately identified secondary liquidity support near $69,000, while deeper long-liquidation clusters are concentrated around $68,800.

Taken together, the order-book and liquidation data show Bitcoin is trading between whale supply above and strong bid support below.

If buyers absorb the sell walls above $72,000, the price could move into the denser short-leverage zone between $72,000 and $73,500.

However, if that resistance holds, the market may rotate back toward the bid support near $70,500 to $71,000 and, in a deeper pullback, test liquidity around $69,000.