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Bitcoin could soar to $90,000 if Republican candidate Donald Trump becomes US president after November’s elections, but slump to $30,000 if Democrat Kamala Harris is triumphant, brokerage Bernstein said.
A Trump win would benefit the cryptocurrency market via a more favorable regulatory environment that could eliminate risk barriers for financial institutions, said analysts led by Gautam Chhugani in a Sept. 9 research note.
That would allow digital assets to compete more effectively with traditional assets for financial flows, and promote increased innovation, they said.
NEW: @BernsteinBuzz SAYS $BTC COULD HIT $90K BY YEAR END IF @realDonaldTrump ,IS ELECTED OR DROP TO AS LOW AS $30K IF @KamalaHarris IS ELECTED
— killz (@KillzzSol) September 9, 2024
Trump has been vocal about making the U.S. the Bitcoin capital of the world, and says he’ll implement policies to make it a Bitcoin mining “powerhouse.” He’s also said he’ll fire on day one Securities and Exchange Commission chair Gary Gensler, who is seen as hostile to the crypto industry.
“Elections remain hard to call, but if you are long crypto here, you are likely taking a Trump trade,” the analysts said. ”After the last three years of regulatory purge, a positive crypto regulatory policy can spur innovation again and bring the users back to financial products on the blockchain.”
Harris, on the other hand, has remained silent on the topic of crypto, while the Democratic party has been seen as hostile towards it.
“While crypto industry leaders have been more open-minded with the Harris campaign and are hoping for a more constructive policy, we expect the delta between the two political outcomes to be wide,” the Bernstein analysts said.
Should Trump prevail in November’s polls, Bernstein sees BTC climbing to between $80k and $90k by the end of the year. If Harris takes the White House, the brokerages predicts BTC will plunge to between $30k and $40k.
Bernstein had previously predicted that Bitcoin could hit $200,000 by the end of next year, and $500,000 by the end of 2029.
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