Bitcoin held near $70,000 despite oil price briefly trading around $100 a barrel, a move that would once have pushed crypto sharply lower under the usual macro playbook.
According to CryptoSlate’s data, the flagship digital asset climbed a modest 0.3% over the last 24 hours, reaching as high as $71,337 before retracing to $69,803 as of press time.
Oil prices climbed sharply, with WTI crude rising 4.79% to $92.04 and Brent crude jumping 5.24% to $97.22.
The rally followed escalating shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which deepened concerns about a sustained supply shock. Notably, Iran had warned the world to prepare for oil prices of $200 a barrel.
Nonetheless, BTC’s price performance despite these threats marks a significant divergence from previous weeks, when surging oil prices pushed the crypto market lower amid inflation fears.
While those fears persist in the market, Bitcoin has shown greater resilience, holding within an established range rather than breaking lower.
Why is Bitcoin price not falling this time?
One of the clearest catalysts for Bitcoin’s price not breaking lower during the recent oil price rise was the falling speculative froth in the market.
Data from CoinShares showed that BTC leverage ratios had already dropped from about 33% in October 2025 to 25% by early March, back near long-run averages.
According to the firm:
“Market structure entering the crisis was already significantly cleaner, following an estimated $30 billion of whale distribution over the previous five months that pushed valuations and technical indicators into oversold territory. With leverage reduced and much of the motivated selling already exhausted, the market was better positioned to absorb new demand.”
Meanwhile, spot BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows have also turned less hostile at a crucial point in the market.
According to CoinShares, digital-asset investment products took in more than $1 billion in the first five days of March after five straight weeks of outflows totaling about $4 billion.
Data from Glassnode also corroborated this, noting that flows into 12 US spot Bitcoin ETFs are stabilizing, with their 7-day moving average returning to positive territory after weeks of sustained institutional outflows.
Moreover, Santiment’s data also point to a market that has been stronger than its mood in recent months, but is still dealing with fragile conviction.
According to Santiment, Bitcoin’s 365-day MVRV shows long-term returns on the blockchain are about level with what was seen in the final week of 2022.
At the time, the 365-day MVRV was deeply negative following the FTX collapse, but Bitcoin rose 67% over the following three months.
Santiment said the current divergence is notable even with very different macro conditions and the added influence of Strategy’s aggressive accumulation.
At the same time, the spot market demand for BTC has started to recover, and cumulative volume delta has rebounded as buyers absorb sell-side liquidity across major exchanges.
That combination helps explain why Bitcoin has not reacted to the oil jump the way it often did in earlier phases of the cycle.
Can BTC sustain its current resilience?
Considering this, the question that begs for an answer is whether BTC can sustain its current resilience and march even higher under current constraints.
Notably, the on-chain picture supports the idea that the top crypto could continue to show strength if current indicators remain positive.
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Data from Alphractal showed liquidation levels are becoming clearer, with the majority of open positions now on the long side. Bitcoin had previously been moving in a volatile sideways range, forcing liquidations in both longs and shorts.
According to the firm, the maximum pain for longs sits around $61,000, while shorts are concentrated near $75,000.
That creates pressure points at both ends of the range and helps define the market’s next decision.
Also, Glassnode noted that BTC is currently seeing an accumulation cluster forming near the middle of its $62,800 to $ 72,600 range, though its intensity remains below that of prior episodes that led to stronger expansions.
This is supported by data from Alphractal, which showed Bitcoin’s RVT Ratio is rising.
The Realized Value to Transactions Ratio compares Realized Cap with the daily adjusted on-chain transfer volume. A rising reading usually points to coins circulating less on-chain, more capital being held rather than transacted, and weaker network activity relative to the amount of stored value.
According to the firm, the 28-day moving average of the indicator suggests that capital stored in Bitcoin continues to grow faster than on-chain economic activity.
Historically, those phases often align with accumulation or softer on-chain demand rather than with broad speculative overheating.
What next for BTC?
If BTC maintains its current price resilience, futures trader positioning the asset leaves room for a move higher.
According to Glassnode, perpetual futures funding has turned negative, pointing to growing short positioning. In past episodes, that setup has given the market room to squeeze higher if spot buying firms.
Data from CME Group showed about $660 million in Bitcoin call open interest in March, compared with about $240 million in puts. Glassnode added that roughly $2 billion of negative gamma is concentrated around the $75,000 strike, with about $1.8 billion of that expiring on March 27.
If Bitcoin pushes through the low $70,000s and reaches that zone, dealer hedging could help accelerate the move toward $80,000.
Those readings suggest traders have eased aggressive short-dated hedging, but they have not yet built strong directional conviction around an immediate breakout.
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