- Despite the price of Bitcoin nearing 18-month highs and breaching key resistance levels, speculative and FOMO short-term investors are holding back, on-chain metrics show.
- Most BTC holders who purchased the coin in the run-up to the $67,000 record high are set to realize their breakeven point when the coin hits $39,000, data shows.
Bitcoin is ending the year on a high and is trading more than twice its price a year ago. While momentum has slowed down in the past week, it’s still 28% higher than a month ago and market analysts predict it will hit the $39,000 point in the near future. However, despite the positive outlook, market FOMO is yet to hit the top crypto and the short-term speculators are staying away, on-chain metrics show.
The current market is being steered by small retail traders, shows data from Santiment, an on-chain market intelligence platform that serves over 2000 cryptos.
Whale Bitcoin wallets “have fluctuated during this major market-wide surge. Tons of new smaller wallets with less than 1 $BTC have flooded the network. Meanwhile, the 1-100 tier has flattened out, and the 100+ tier may be in the midst of some profit-taking,” says Santiment.
🐟🐬🐳 #Bitcoin‘s wallets have fluctuated during this major market-wide surge. Tons of new smaller wallets with less than 1 $BTC have flooded the network. Meanwhile, the 1-100 tier has flattened out, and 100+ tier may be in the midst of some profit taking. https://t.co/va51CcexC1 pic.twitter.com/PNZtA9ir2U
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) November 17, 2023
The company’s data shows that we now have 1.5 million more wallets in the market that hold less than 1 BTC than last month. There are 118 fewer wallets holding 1-100 BTC and there are 19 fewer wallets holding 100+ BTC than last lost month.
Yet another data source, Look Into Bitcoin, supports the metrics. It also reveals a new trend; the number of wallets holding BTC for a short period of time, or the speculators, has yet to start rising consistently.
Look Into Bitcoin shows a metric known as realized HODL waves, which shows the moving BTC in terms of how long they have been held by their addresses and the price at which it last moved on-chain. This results in a high number of moving coins by the RHODL metric during the bull markets and low movement when the market turns bearish.
“Warmer colour low timeframe waves are only just starting to increase as coins are transferred on-chain. No FOMO yet. We’re still early,” says Look Into Bitcoin founder Philip Swift in his interpretation of the current RHODL chart.
$39,000 A Key Price Point for Bitcoin
At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $36,463, dipping marginally over the past week, although it set a new one-year high this week at $37,860. The 24-hour volume has predictably dipped as it does on the weekend, this time by 37% to settle at $11 billion.
The next key price point for the crypto is $39,000, another analyst says. Known in the space as Onchained, he revealed that at this price point, a majority of those who bought BTC on its run-up to the historic $68,000 is still on the loss side of the spectrum.
At $39,000, this majority will flip to be in the money, and once they turn a profit, they could decide to sell. This would create selling pressure on the top coin and it would most likely dip.
This aligns with their entry during the Bitcoin price rally to $67,000. Their NUPL [net unrealized profit/loss]nearing the profitability benchmark of 0 suggests a potential break-even point if Bitcoin continues its rally beyond $39,000.
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