Terra Luna Price Prediction: LUNA Lacks Directional Bias, But Signs Point To A Continued Downtrend

Terra Luna price (LUNA) has been trading with a bearish bias since the beginning of the year after a failed rally that was rejected around the $2.58 level. Since then, the altcoin has been trapped under a crucial supply zone, with the three Simple Moving Averages suppressing the possibility of any gains.

Further, LUNA has suffered the aftermath of bearish fundamentals around the Terra ecosystem, including a loss of trust after the network went bankrupt in May 2022. Most recently, the Terra Labs founder Do Kwon was arrested in Montenegro, further thickening the dark clouds above the project.

As if that is not enough, prosecutors in South Korea also requested Binance exchange to block the Terra executive, now turned convict, from liquidating millions in crypto.

🚨BREAKING- 🇰🇷South Korean prosecutors have investigated and seized more than $200 million in real estate of #Terra executives and employees‼️😲#LUNA #LUNC #Crypto #UST #cryptomarket #CryptoNews https://t.co/Bs0aOjIsg8

— Ajay Kashyap (@EverythingAjay) April 3, 2023

As reported by local news, the prosecutors estimated that assets seized from the Terra Luna executives, Kwon included, totaled 414 billion Korean Won (KRW). At the time, this was around $314 million. Allegedly, the amount belonged to nine employees of Terra, both former and current.

Further, Do Kwon’s share of the funds, dimmed unlawful, was around $69 million. Besides Kwon, co-founder Shin Hyun-Seong, alias Daniel Shin, accumulated close to $41 million from the blockchain. In light of the executives’ connection with the $40 billion collapse of the Terra Luna blockchain, the amount was branded “illegal.”

Investor Activity For LUNA token peaks at $1.41, selling?

At the time of writing, Terra Luna is auctioning at $1.41, up almost 1% in the last 24 hours. Based on the trading volume metric, activity in the LUNA market is up around 95.72% to record a 24-hour trading volume of $75.59 million. Notably, volume is an extremely important indicator for traders to determine the future profitability of cryptocurrencies.

Given the current price’s high trading volume, token holders are switching LUNA for altcoins with a better risk/reward ratio. It is worth mentioning that one can distinguish buying volume from selling volume depending on whether a transaction occurs at the bid price or the asking price. Changes in volume can give traders short-term indications of where the price might go next. In the case of Terra Luna, it is south.

LUNA Could Drop Around 12% Before The Possibility Of An Uptrend

After flipping the resistance presented by the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $1.38, Terra Luna price appears stuck again. As shown in the one-day chart below, most of the ground covered in the Tuesday trading session is now lost as bears continue solidifying their market presence.

If selling pressure increases, presumably as LUNA holders trade the altcoin for an alternative with less risk, the price could drop. In such a scenario, the most likely trajectory is a revisit of the $1.23 support floor before a possible correction.

Besides the overhead pressure presented by the SMAs, other factors that bolster the case for a downswing include the Relative Strength Index (RSI) trajectory. The RSI pointing downwards signified that more token holders are still fleeing the LUNA market, and the price could head further south.

Moreover, based on the direction of the RSI, this momentum indicator could soon authenticate a signal to “sell LUNA” once it crossed below the Stochastic RSI (yellow). If traders heed this call, Terra Luna price would certainly tag the support floor at $1.23 or, in the worst-case scenario, breach it and record a new all-time low.

Also, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator was still in negative territory, indicating bears were leading the market.

Converse Case

On the flip side, if sidelined investors seize the opportunity to buy the dip, the altcoin’s market value  could make a pullback, breaking the immediate resistance level at $1.57. Notice that this hurdle has been critical in preventing the upside for LUNA, and breaching it would pave the way for further gains.

Beyond the critical resistance, Terra Luna price could tag the 100-day SMA at $1.66 before meeting the 200-day SMA at $1.76. LUNA could reclaim the January and February highs around the $2.30 resistance level in highly bullish cases provoked by an equally appealing positive development in the ecosystem. Such a move would constitute a 66% uptick from the current rates.

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