Bitcoin slid to $63,030 after US-Israel strikes on Iran triggered a risk-off cascade across markets. From there, BTC rallied to $74,000 intraday on Mar. 4, a roughly 17% rebound.
As of press time, Bitcoin trades at $73,613, up 7.7% in the past 24 hours. The move recaptured much of the selloff, but whether it holds depends on a handful of levels and liquidity signals that on-chain data identifies as critical.
To hold the rally, BTC needs to turn the $70,000 weekly-close ceiling into support. Otherwise, $70,000 remains an overhead distribution band, with the $60,000-$69,000 demand zone still the real bid below.
Glassnode frames $70,000 as the near-term resistance line that BTC has repeatedly failed to close above on a weekly basis since early February.
The 1-week to 1-month holder cost basis sits near $70,000, creating what Glassnode calls an overhead distribution zone, a ±2% band from $68,500 to $71,500, where recent buyers may become sellers as they reach breakeven or slight profit.
Above that, $75,000 emerges as the key gamma magnet in options positioning. Negative gamma of roughly $2.3 billion is concentrated at the $75,000 strike across expiries, with $1.8 billion in the Mar. 27 expiry alone.
The net call premium of $14.5 million has traded at $75,000 across the next three monthly expiries, with two-thirds of that volume accumulated over the past week.
This isn’t just a round number: options positioning makes $75,000 a liquidity and gravity level. If the price gets pulled there, it needs real spot demand behind it, or it becomes a chop zone.
Below current levels, support structures are thinner. The intraday low around $67,500 serves as the “bounce failed” line. If BTC breaks below it, the move risks unwinding.
Glassnode identified last week that the $60,000-$69,000 is the main demand zone underneath, suggesting that’s where real bids sit if the rally fades.
Using the $63,030 to $74,000 range, retaining 70% of the bounce means holding above $70,709. Retaining 60% means holding $69,612. Those thresholds line up almost perfectly with Glassnode’s $68,500–$71,500 overhead distribution band.
If BTC holds above $70,700, it’s likely to retain most of the bounce. If it loses $69,600, the market is giving back a meaningful chunk, and $70,000 reverts to acting like supply rather than support.
Demand is thinned
On-chain metrics show buy-side demand remains weak despite the price recovery.
The 30-day simple moving average of realized profit fell from over $1 billion per day to roughly $370 million per day, a 63% contraction.
Glassnode reads this as thinned buy-side liquidity. A “hold-the-gains” setup requires realized profit to stop contracting and re-expand, indicating buyers are willing to transact at a premium. Without that, the bounce goes to weak hands.
The percent of supply in profit sits around 57%, below its minus-one standard deviation threshold near 60%. Glassnode compares this stressed regime to the early stages of the May 2022 and November 2018 bear phases.
For the rally to hold, the percentage of supply in profit needs to reclaim 60% and trend higher, signaling an exit from the stressed regime.
Coinbase leads spot liquidity, ETF flows stabilize
Spot flow data reveals a nuanced picture.
Selling pressure has been moderating over the last few days. The Coinbase spot cumulative volume delta has started to rebound, indicating early bid-side activity.
However, Binance and aggregate exchange flows remain weak, though Glassnode notes they’re “no longer accelerating lower.”
This bounce holds only if bid absorption broadens beyond Coinbase. Otherwise, it’s a localized relief rally, not a market-wide spot reversal. The pattern suggests institutional or US-based buyers are re-engaging, but international or retail flows haven’t followed yet.
Bitcoin spot ETFs had sustained outflows leading into the selloff, but flows have stabilized with early inflows reappearing. Mar. 2 saw $458.2 million in net inflows, followed by $225.2 million on Mar. 3, according to Farside Investors data.
Glassnode stresses it’s too early to confirm a durable reversal, but continued recovery in inflows would provide meaningful spot-side support.
Supportive conditions include multiple days of net inflows and the 7-day average shifting up from negative. Reversal risk remains if flows slip back negative while price is stuck below or around the $70,000 overhead band.
The stabilization is encouraging, but persistence matters more than the initial turnaround.
Derivatives: leverage flushed, $75,000 as a magnet
Perpetual directional premium continues compressing toward cycle lows, indicating cautious leverage and muted bullish conviction.
Glassnode frames this as leverage being flushed, but also as a signal that leveraged bulls remain hesitant.
A healthy hold would see premiums stabilize, while spot conditions improve.
A fragile hold would show price rising mainly on derivatives, while spot remains weak. So far, the setup leans toward the former, with leverage unwinding rather than re-accumulating aggressively.
Options positioning has shifted dramatically since the Feb. 28 lows. The put/call ratio moved from 1.89 to 0.4, reflecting hedges unwinding and increased call activity. Skew compressed from the mid-20s to the low-10s, indicating downside fear has faded.
The $75,000 strike concentration is the key detail. Roughly $2.3 billion in negative gamma sits at that strike across expiries, with $1.8 billion concentrated in the Mar. 27 expiry.
The net call premium of $14.5 million has been traded at $75,000 across the next three monthly expiries, with two-thirds of the premium accumulated over the past week.
If the price approaches $75,000, the gamma concentration creates a liquidity and gravity effect. Without real spot demand backing it, that level could become a chop zone rather than a breakout point.
What holds, what breaks
Three scenarios frame the possibilities.
The first scenario occurs if BTC holds above $70,700 and starts to post stronger spot and ETF support. In this case, the $70,000 level can flip to support, and $75,000 becomes the next magnet test. Weekly closes above $70,000 would confirm the flip.
For the second scenario to play out, BTC churns between $68,500 and $71,500 and can’t get weekly closes above $70,000, the move risks being a relief rally into overhead distribution. Realized profit needs to re-expand, and spot bid absorption needs to broaden beyond Coinbase for this range to resolve higher.
Lastly, a third scenario arises if BTC loses the local bounce structure around $67,500 and $70,000 stays overhead. The market is likely to revisit the $60,000-$69,000 demand zone as the real bid. That would mark a failed bounce rather than a hold.
The data points to a fragile recovery with pockets of strength, such as Coinbase flows improving, ETF inflows stabilizing, and options skew normalizing.
However, the broader tape remains unconvinced.
The $70,000 level isn’t just a number, it is also where recent buyers sit on cost basis, where weekly closes have failed repeatedly, and where the market will test whether this bounce has follow-through or fades into overhead supply.
Weekly closes and spot flow breadth will answer that question over the next several days.
Credit: Source link
